Black Velvet, If You Please

The final week is here.

Looking back on past seasons, I can't think of a top two who were as talented or commercially viable as Lee Dewyze and Crystal Bowersox. Certainly not last year with Kris Allen, who won only because slightly more than half of America thought that Adam Lambert was a weirdo. Certainly not Season Six, when we had a beat-boxer lose to a generic blah, or Season Five, when an elderly man beat a model. The closest thing might be Season Four, with Carrie Underwood against Bo Bice, except that Bo Bice never had a lot of commercial potential. He was definitely talented, but not really a star (unless it was 1974 and he was a member of Lynyrd Skynryd).

Maybe Season Seven: Lil Davey Archuleta against David Cook, but I still don't think they compare talent-wise.

Anyway, back to Season Nine. At the start of the Top Twelve, this is where I stood on the finalists:

Crystal: "Crystal was the best of the evening. She started out sounding a lot like the college kids who sat in the commons area and played guitar and didn't go to class, but once she got into it she was really amazing. So, even though the judges gave the crown to Siobhan, I'm giving it to Crystal."

Lee: "Lee was boring. Boring enough that he'll almost certainly be in the bottom three."

Lee continued to not impress me for several weeks. Not until Week Four, in which he brought out a bagpiper to help him with Hey Jude. He won me over as a fan with that, and I've been firmly in his camp ever since (not because of the gimmick, but because he's legitimately good).

Which is not to say Crystal isn't good. She's amazing. In fact, if we were to make predictions based solely on last night's performances then Crystal would win. Based solely on last night Crystal should win, and anyone who says otherwise is lying to themselves.

That said, she's not going to win. And here's why:

1. Momentum: Since about Week Four, Lee has been rising, getting better and better every week. Crystal has not ever been lousy, but she hit her peak early and plateaued. I don't want to say that she's coasted, because I don't think that's her mindset, but her steady awesomeness has become expected and no longer wows us.

2. Charm: American Idol is still predominantly watched and voted on by women, and Lee has the charm. As unfortunate and unfair as it may be, I think that--all other things being equal--a cute, single guy will beat a dredlocked, slightly overweight woman with an enormous tattoo on her back. (I'm NOT saying this is a good thing. I'm saying I think it's a reality.)

3. Rationalization: I think that America will quite often vote someone off if they assume that person doesn't want/need the win as much. I think voters will look at Crystal, who is supremely confident and self-assured, who hasn't ever wavered from her personal desires to be who she is, and they'll say "Crystal will be fine if she doesn't win. It's Lee who needs the boost." To some extent, I think this is how Taylor Hicks won. I think it's how Melinda Doolittle (and Syesha Mercado) got voted off in the top three.

So, there it is. Crystal will lose and Lee will win. I'm not sure how I feel about that, because, again, they both are very deserving. I'm not sad about it, but I do think that Crystal is kind of getting the shaft.